AMNA NAWAZ: Israelis will go to the polls tomorrow in what many describe as the most consequential election in years.

It's the first vote since the Hamas attack on Israel on 2023 and Israel's war in Gaza in response.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been making the case that he will keep Israel safe.

But the main opposition says Netanyahu failed to prevent the October 7 attack and is blocking an investigation into how warning signs were missed.

Nick Schifrin reports from Tel Aviv.

NICK SCHIFRIN: In Tel Aviv this weekend, a clarion called for change.

Gadi Eisenkot is the former Israeli military chief, son of Moroccan immigrants, and today leader of a coalition trying to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

GADI EISENKOT, Israeli Prime Minister Candidate (through translator): Israel and the Israelis will be able to start a new era, an era of growth, of real security, of taking action, an era without lies and manipulations.

LIANNE POLLAK-DAVID, Israeli Parliamentary Candidate: Gadi Eisenkot is the complete opposite of Benjamin Netanyahu.

Gadi Eisenkot is a trustworthy, honest, pragmatic, and a leader that basically has the national interest at heart.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Lianne Pollak-David is a parliamentary candidate in Eisenkot's party, Yashar, Hebrew for Straightforward, a reference to both direction and integrity, that Netanyahu faces charges of corruption.

LIANNE POLLAK-DAVID: Benjamin Netanyahu speaks the most amazing English and how knows how to market himself, but basically has lost complete trust of not just the global arena, but also the U.S.

general public.

NICK SCHIFRIN: This is the first vote since the deadliest day in Israel's history, the October 7 terrorist attacks, when 1,200 Israelis were murdered.

It's also Israel's worst ever intelligence failure, for which Netanyahu has not been held accountable.

Eisenkot vows, as his first action as prime minister, to launch an independent inquiry that he says Netanyahu has blocked.

DEVORA SHARIFIAN BACHAR, Israeli Parliamentary Candidate: It's only because of him.

It's only because of the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, that we didn't investigate.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Devora Sharifian Bachar is a former Israeli intelligence official and a Yashar candidate for Parliament.

DEVORA SHARIFIAN BACHAR: He wants to investigate himself.

Please, we are not clowns, and we need to understand what to do better, where we go wrong, and we will do so.

NICK SCHIFRIN: After October the 7th, Eisenkot joined Netanyahu's War Cabinet, but resigned and accused Netanyahu of prioritizing politics over security.

Now Eisenkot argues he can finish the wars that Netanyahu can't against Hamas in Gaza, against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon, where Israel maintains an occupation for the first time in more than 25 years, and the war in Iran that has severely reduced Iran's traditional military, but installed an even harder-line regime.

DEVORA SHARIFIAN BACHAR: In 20 years, I worked in the Israeli intelligence.

If we see Iran still standing, they are rehabilitating their forces.

They're starting to build again those crazy missiles that they throw on us.

NICK SCHIFRIN: And an Eisenkot government vows to crack down on extremist Israeli settlers in the West Bank who've recently attacked journalists and diplomats, as well as Palestinians as they harvest olives.

LIANNE POLLAK-DAVID: Extremist violent groups going out there every single night attacking honest and innocent, basically, civilians on the Palestinian side, but not only that, also diplomats and journalists, this is completely unacceptable.

It does not reflect the Israeli people.

And this government has done nothing to stop it, but also has even fueled that activity.

NICK SCHIFRIN: It is Palestinian violence in the West Bank that Netanyahu highlights, including a Friday attack that killed two Israeli soldiers.

Netanyahu vowed a crackdown as part of his argument he alone can provide security.

And Israeli bulldozers pulled down buildings where the attackers lived.

On the campaign trail, Netanyahu's painted the opposition as dangerous because of a possible alliance with Arab parties.

And Netanyahu has trumpeted his endorsement by President Trump and argued Eisenkot wouldn't maintain their relationship or be able to launch a joint U.S.-Israel attack on Iran.

Netanyahu even reposted an AI image of an Iranian nuclear weapon exploding over Tel Aviv.

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, Israeli Prime Minister: Donald, we have a job to finish.

You said it, and we will finish it together.

OPHIR FALK, Foreign Policy Adviser to Prime Minister Netanyahu: Israel and the American-Israeli alliance is stronger than ever.

And Iran and the Iranian proxies are weaker than ever.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Ophir Falk is Netanyahu's foreign policy adviser.

OPHIR FALK: The prime minister, again, he promised on day two of the war that he will change the Middle East.

And he has changed the Middle East.

Has he completed, finished the job 100 percent?

Not yet.

He's done about 90 percent.

He still needs to do 10 percent.

He wants to finish the job.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Does that mean that Israel and the United States goes back to war after the U.S.

midterm elections?

OPHIR FALK: Well, I can't comment on when the war will restart or if it will restart.

There's great economic pressure on the Iranian regime.

It might fall that way.

But, as you said, President Trump, the leader of the free world, the leader of the United States, our number one ally, Israel's indispensable ally, sees us as a model ally and wants Netanyahu to win.

This is not a political statement.

It's a policy statement.

The president of the United States wants Prime Minister Netanyahu to win.

Who doesn't want Netanyahu to win?

Iran, the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas.

NICK SCHIFRIN: As for the West Bank, Israeli checkpoints feature campaign posters of far right government ministers who've supported the settler movement.

But Falk argues the government has targeted extremist settlers.

OPHIR FALK: There have been over 360 investigations in the past quarter.

There's been 35 arrests in the past quarter of what you call settler violence.

And we won't accept anybody taking the law into their own hands.

Israel is a country of rule of law.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Falk and the government say the focus should be on Palestinian violence against settlers and the Israeli military.

OPHIR FALK: Over 1,530 Palestinian terrorist attack attempts have happened over the past year.

So you got to put that into perspective.

NICK SCHIFRIN: And rights groups say, in response to government claims about crackdowns on settler violence, that more than 90 percent of Israel's investigations into settlers end without an indictment.

And we have seen Israeli soldiers coordinate, even defend settlers across the West Bank -- Amna.

AMNA NAWAZ: And, Nick, as we look ahead to that election tomorrow, walk us through the latest polls.

What do they show us at this point?

NICK SCHIFRIN: Well, it depends on which polls you follow, but Eisenkot's coalition is leading slightly.

But, right now, neither side has enough votes in order to form a coalition that would become the next government.

And a reminder, Amna, as you know, winning the Israeli elections means leading a party that can form a coalition.

The Knesset, the Israeli Parliament, has 120 seats.

So, for a coalition to have a majority, it needs at least 61.

In the last poll release, Netanyahu's Likud Party and its coalition partners have 48 seats, well short of 61.

Eisenkot's coalition is leading with 54, but also short of 61.

He could form what's known as a minority government.

That would be the first time in Israeli history a government started with under 61, but that would only be possible by asking for support from Arab parties.

You see them represented right there in green.

And some in Eisenkot's coalition have already rejected that.

That's a reminder of his fractious and fragile coalition.

He has a party on the left that wants a two-state solution.

He's also got two parties on the right wing of Israeli politics that are against that and are more focused on bringing the ultraorthodox into the military.

Look, the election could tip on a small number of votes.

There also could be a stalemate, Amna.

We have seen that in the past.

That is something that would lead perhaps to more elections, something no Israelis want to see, but it would leave Benjamin Netanyahu as caretaker prime minister.

AMNA NAWAZ: And, Nick, in your reporting, you have described Eisenkot as representing change, but how much change is he really calling for?

NICK SCHIFRIN: It's a very good question, because, as you heard in the story from Eisenkot and his supporters, they believe that they're very different from Benjamin Netanyahu, whether it comes to accountability for October the 7th or even how they will talk to Americans.

They criticize Netanyahu for focusing too much on President Trump.

They want to reach out to more Americans, including Democrats.

But when it comes to Israeli foreign policy, those changes seem to reduce.

First, in Gaza, as I mentioned, Eisenkot promises to finish the fight against Hamas.

But he's warning it might require restarting the war.

In Lebanon, he's admitted that -- quote -- "It will take a lot of time for Hezbollah to be dismantled," so Israeli troops will have to remain in Southern Lebanon.

In Iran, he vows to destroy or dismantle Iran's nuclear program, including with a military strike.

And when it comes to the Palestinians, since October the 7th, the majority of Israelis are in favor of settlement expansion.

And there's very little talk of Gaza, conditions in Gaza 75,000 killed.

WFP says 1.4 million people experiencing acute food insecurity.

What Israelis are focused on, Amna, an election that feels one of the most consequential in years, and a country that is fractured and, frankly, still traumatized from all the wars in the last few years.

AMNA NAWAZ: All right, that is Nick Schifrin reporting from Tel Aviv tonight.

Nick, thank you.